India’s politics has now come to a full circle with the BJP completely replacing the political dominance of the Congress, which the Grand Old Party had acquired immediately after Independence and remained so till the mid-80s of the last century. The victory of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, as part of the recently concluded assembly elections, has further cemented the pole position of the saffron party and its leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the political canvas of the country.
This has led many to believe that the party is all poised to break two past records of the erstwhile Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls– third consecutive win in national elections, which the Congress under the leadership of former PM Jawaharlal Nehru achieved in 1952, 1957 and 1962, and also surpassing the record of winning highest number seats (404) in the lower house in 1984 under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi.
However, the parties opposed to the BJP are trying to come together and put up one-to-one candidates against the ruling party and in the process, they have formed a new political entity- the ‘INDIA’ grouping. But things have not looked so bright for them since the run-up to the recent assembly polls in five states and particularly after the results were declared.
Contradictions in the INDIA bloc have started showing face. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav countered the jibe by Madhya Pradesh Congress leader Kamal Nath by alleging that a few of the “Congress leaders are siding with the BJP” and had also said that he would not have trusted the Congress if he had known that it would ditch him and his party. Incidentally, such differences are just the beginning and with each election coming the Opposition alliance’s way, many other parties will express their dismay and disenchantment with the Congress, even as the pole position of the Grand Old Party has substantially diminished after the loss in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
The Congress’ win in Telangana and earlier victory in Karnataka are no consolation for the party, as in South India, in almost all states the regional parties are ruling. If the Grand Old Party makes a dent there, outfits like the DMK, Left and others will become wary of it.
More to it, one also needs to understand that alliance politics succeeds only in a situation where there is an absence of a strong leader and the polity remains fragmented to the extent that parties compete to dislodge each other in groups. In case a strong leader is in power and parties, if they form a grouping to unseat the incumbent, there is very little chance that they can succeed. To gouge this phenomenon, one needs to look back at the scenario that emerged during the mid-70s of the last century that marked the imposition of ‘Emergency’.
At that time, several of the parties including the Congress (O), Swatantra Party, Socialist Party of India, Bharatiya Jana Sangh and the Lok Dal were opposed to then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and fought against the imposition of Emergency. But when it came to fighting elections against her and her party in 1977, they all merged to form the Janata Party and succeeded in dislodging the Congress from power. Congress defectors Jagjivan Ram, Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna and Nandini Satpathy had formed the Congress for Democracy (CFD) and joined the new party.
Now there exists a situation where Prime Minister Narendra Modi replaces then PM Indira Gandhi in terms of position, but minus the ‘Emergency’ and so now, if the parties in Opposition have to throw a credible challenge, they need to leave their respective ideological positions and petty interests and merge to become a single entity.
Presently, the way the INDIA bloc aims to achieve its goal of unseating the BJP, it can succeed only in a scenario that existed in the country between 1989 and 2014, when Indian polity largely remained fragmented, and there was a complete absence of a strong pan-India leader. There existed a United Front, composed of socialist constituents of the erstwhile Janata Party, and politics of the day hinged on ‘secular-communal’ lines and this provided a pole position to the BJP and the Congress.
This led to the formation of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the leadership of BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the Congress later stitched a bloc called the United progressive Alliance (UPA).
The alliances switched powers by not defeating any strong leader. They only came together to share the fruits of power and therefore they succeeded in their efforts. Now, if the INDIA alliance wants to make any serious dent, they need to innovate and think and act differently, otherwise, they would continue to remain chasing a mirage.
The author is a senior journalist having an experience of over 25 years in writing on politics and development economics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.